Yes this topic is totally off topic, but critical none the less.
Unless you've been living in a cave the past couple weeks you know
what a serious world wide financial crisis we're in. Having an
accounting background I'm going to explain to you in a way that's easy
to understand. First this is a GLOBAL problem and not limited to the
United States or just rich people. It effects everyone regardless
where they live or how much money they happen to have and if or not
they own a home. Your parents or grandparents remember the Stock
Market Crash of 1929 and the resulting Great Depression that followed
with people standing in bread lines because they were starving. Unless
fixed, and quick, we're on the verge of sliding into a similar
situation.
This is NOT a stock market crisis, rather a credit market crisis. Both
politicians and the news media have wrongly been referring to the
pending legislation as a "bail-out of Wall Street" implying the fat
cats will be the major beneficiaries. Not so. That is why most
Americans who, lets face it, are Joe six pack types are totally
clueless about financial markets don't understand and have been
flooding Congress with angry emails demanding they vote against the
700 billion dollar relief plan thinking they as taxpayers will be on
the hook and sometime down the road end up paying for it in more
taxes.
Like most financial meltdowns this one has it's roots in GREED.
Assessing who's to blame is more difficult. Surely the investment
banks as well as commercial banks and your neighborhood S&L. But also
people asking for and getting mortgages they know they couldn't afford
and a large number of real estate speculators, known a flippers, that
swoop in buy distressed properties, do a quick fix up and sell them at
a fat profit.
Real Estate prices like everything else goes in cycles. Prices have
been rising so fast Rubes think they never could start going the other
way. Well they did start to fall and hard. That is what started this
mess. Banks wrote sub prime loans. Many people got such a loan but as
prices fell they found themselves in a situation where the property
was worth much less than their mortgage, so they walked away. This led
to glut of unsold houses, which further caused the value of real
estate to drop. Others simply couldn't afford the mortgage once the
teaser rates got jacked-up.
We'll leave the complex paper shuffling out of this discussion since
it is too complex to explain in a newsgroup, so basically we'll just
say banks started to lose money by the billions.
There are almost a 1,000 publicly traded banks on the stock market
which include all the big ones. Under government regulations as well
as generally accepted accounting "rules" financial institutions are
required to put money aside as "reserves" to offset potential losses
in the future from "bad" mortgages to more fairly state their true
financial condition.
Several flies in the ointment. The big banks, especially investment
banks use excessive leverage. That's where they increase their buying
power by only having one dollar behind every 30 or 40 they spend.
Obviously once things start to go bad, they can go bad fast. Here's
why. As a public company rating companies rank bank's paper or how
risky it is. A bank gets a lower rating when it starts to lose money.
This effects not only the actual balance sheet, but the stock price.
Three things are hurting banks.
1. The mark to market accounting rule which should be suspended.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_to_market
2. difficulty raising capital
3. "runs" on banks
In theory a bank's assets are carried on the books at market value. If
a mortgage is in default the underlying value of the properly tumbles
and a write down in value is called for. The problem is in a crisis
NOBODY knows what the true "market value" is and banks tend to write
properly down to much lower values then they actually should be. If a
bank holds a lot of bad moorages, a rating agency will likely lower
it's rating, that in turn makes it less attractive as an investment,
the bank can't raise capital or if it does that greatly dilutes the
equity value of present stock holders causing them to dump the stock
further depressing the value, and risking the bank failing.
People fearing a bank will fail pull out their deposits, foolishly
since it is protected by FDIC up to 100K for individuals. The bank no
longer has enough cash on hand to do day to day business and the
government steps in.
What is spooking the government is for the FIRST time a major money
market fund when millions of people now park their money has seen the
net asset value of the money market fund fall below $1.00. This set
off alarm bells with people withdrawing billions of what they thought
were "safe" investments.
A snowball rolling down hill:
The reason this is a credit market crisis and not a stock market
crisis is banks have started to stop trusting each other and no longer
lend to each other or to everyday people or businesses or they charge
excessively high rates. This creates a "blockage" in the flow of
credit... the life blood of our economy. This freezing up of capital
can rapidly increase until it effects main street, not just Wall
Street. Company won't be able to meet payrolls, won't spend capital to
expand, people stop buying all but what they need to survive and it
just continues until you get 20, 30, 40% unemployment just like in the
Great Depression of the 30's.
Needless to say all of this severely impacts the stock prices of every
company, including Joe Six Pack's pension fund, retirement accounts,
401k, everything. That why this problem is YOUR problem and your money
is at risk! You should be demanding Congress take action and now.
True to form the assholes in Congress of both parties ****ed up by not
voting for this emergency relief package. As usual they are putting
THEIR interests ahead of yours and fear if they vote for this package
they will get voted out of office. So as usual the politicians are
****ing YOU up big time and are already hitting you hard in your
wallet.
The BIG lie is if Congress "gives" 700 billion, you'll never see it
again and as taxpayers you'll sooner or later pay it back in higher
taxes.
Not likely.
The "plan" takes a big chunk of the toxic bad moorages off the books
of the banks holding this bad paper and the government simply holds it
until market conditions are more favorable, likely selling this now
"bad" paper off at a profit, two, three five years down the road. So
when the politicians say they don't want to give $700 billion to Wall
Street they are lying their asses off. The government is giving
anything. They are using taxpayer money to PURCHASE assets which they
later will sell, likely at a profit. And yes, this in part what was
done to help us get out of the Great Depression.
With the influx of cash, you unfreeze the cash already in the system
and banks will start loaning again. Do nothing and just sit back and
watch one bank after another fail, millions of people lose their jobs
and the values of homes fall another 30% or more. This really is a
crisis of confidences that the very system the world's economy is
based on will fail. It's already stated to fail and unless Congress
takes bold action and now, we are headed for a melt down.
Now maybe you better understand the problem and how serious it is. Two
things you can do besides screaming at your local Congressman to get
off his dumb ass and fix this. Demand that the SEC (Security &
Exchange Commission) suspend the 'mark to market' rule and also bring
back the up tick rule. Both are having a extreme negative effect on
the stock market and only make things worse by increasing volatility.